Compass’s Exclusive Inventory Finally Drops

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A funny thing happened two weeks ago: after I published an analysis on Compass’s exclusive inventory rising despite Zillow’s efforts to stop it, it suddenly reversed course and started dropping – a lot.

Why it matters: The battle over exclusive inventory isn’t just about lawsuits, corporate posturing, and brute force – it’s also about perception.

  • And for Compass to prevail in its lawsuit against Zillow, it needs to show harm – and exclusive inventory going up, which my analysis showed, is the opposite of that.

 
 

For the ten days before I published my analysis, the number of Compass exclusive listings was rising an average of 0.7 percent per day.

  • After publishing, that metric rapidly swung to an average drop of 0.8 percent per day – a full 1.5 percent change – the largest observable swing since I began tracking this data in July 2024.

 
 

During the same period, the total number of Compass listings continued to increase while private exclusives and coming soon listings dropped.

  • Meaning exclusive inventory as a percentage of total listings dropped from a high of 26 percent down to 22 percent.

 
 

Zillow has been trying to clamp down on the rise of exclusive inventory since it announced its new listing policy in April.

  • But after enforcement of its new policy began on June 30, the number of Compass exclusive listings, and their rate of change, increased.
     

  • In contrast, after I published my analysis the number of exclusive listings dropped by 8 percent and the rate of change significantly swung negative.

 
 

Now, humor me for a moment: Zillow is a huge company with massive resources, but it hasn’t been able to materially change the number of Compass’s exclusive listings (assuming that was the goal).

  • But where Zillow has struggled in the past, data, the principle of transparency, and a 378-word article has had a more meaningful impact.

 
 

This analysis is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but in the battle over exclusive inventory it does highlight the importance of perception.

  • A collection of very large companies and organizations, from Zillow to NAR, have been trying to control the rise of exclusive inventory with mixed to negligible results.
     

  • But what’s occurring suggests that this battle may not be won by trying to change agent behavior at scale or power plays by powerful players.

The bottom line: This may all be just an incredible coincidence, but in the spirit of Occam's razor, the simplest explanation is usually the best.

  • In my previous article I made mention of “strategic jiu-jitsu,” which feels especially apt today: it is the Japanese art that neutralizes an opponent by using their own energy, force, and momentum against them.
     

  • In this case, the perception of the effectiveness of Zillow's listing ban appears to be more important than the reality.